by Sebastien GOULARD
In early August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the launch, in the autumn, of a new regional project: the Carpathian Initiative. The project aims to strengthen cooperation among the eight countries of the Carpathian region: Austria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Ukraine.
Beyond Security
In the past, some Central European countries have adopted a distant, and at times hostile, stance towards Ukraine. This has been the case with Hungary under Viktor Orbán, as well as Slovakia under Prime Minister Robert Fico, which for a long time maintained close ties with the Russian President before moving closer to Kyiv. One of the strengths of the future Carpathian Initiative is that it will not focus solely on security issues, but will also seek to strengthen cooperation in the fields of the economy, logistics, tourism and culture. This multi-sectoral integration should help deepen relations between Ukraine and its Western neighbours.
As President Zelensky stated, several of Ukraine’s neighbouring states are still not prepared to provide military support to Kyiv in the form of military equipment, for both political and supply-related reasons. However, Ukraine’s neighbours could strengthen their support in other ways, notably through increased economic exchanges and the development of new infrastructure across the wider Carpathian region. By putting forward this proposal, Volodymyr Zelensky is taking the initiative, and it will be difficult for his European partners to oppose it, as they will have both an economic and a political interest in supporting an initiative aimed at ensuring the development of a shared region: the Carpathians.
Once the conflict is over and Ukraine joins the European Union, the Carpathians could become a major corridor for transit and exchanges between Ukraine and its neighbours. In 2023, the European Commission and the European Investment Bank published a report suggesting the connection of Ukraine’s railway network with those of its Western neighbours. This project should become a priority during Ukraine’s reconstruction phase. Once these infrastructure upgrades are completed, the entire Carpathian region could benefit from them.
A Cultural Dimension
President Zelensky has also announced that the Carpathian Initiative will have a cultural dimension. Throughout its history, the Carpathian region has been controlled by several different powers and is consequently home to numerous minorities, which have at times been politically instrumentalised. The Carpathian Initiative could help defuse this issue.
For a long time, the Hungarian government was highly critical of Ukraine over its treatment of the Hungarian minority in Zakarpattia Oblast. In June, Budapest and Kyiv signed an agreement aimed at protecting and promoting the Hungarian language among this minority in Zakarpattia, which numbers approximately 150,000 people. The same oblast is also home to a small Slovak minority, estimated at around 6,000 people.
Ukraine’s Romanian minority, numbering more than half a million people, is primarily concentrated in Odesa, but is also present in Zakarpattia and Chernivtsi oblasts, both of which are located in the Carpathian region. Giving the Carpathian Initiative a cultural dimension should help Kyiv reassure countries such as Romania, Slovakia and Hungary. Their support will be all the more important if Ukraine is eventually to join the European Union.
The aim is to win over public opinion and take the wind out of the sails of nationalist movements.
Serbia’s Support
The announcement came just a few weeks before President Zelensky was received in Belgrade on 8 August by President Aleksandar Vučić. Like Viktor Orbán in the past, Vučić could once have been considered close to Vladimir Putin, but he has now moved closer to Ukraine.
Serbia also wants to join the European Union, and its President knows that this will not be possible as long as his country does not openly support Kyiv. Moreover, Serbia is keen to join any initiative that could accelerate its accession to the EU. The Carpathian Initiative should therefore be relatively well received, since, like Ukraine, Serbia will need the support of its neighbours to strengthen economic exchanges and develop new infrastructure.
By announcing the Carpathian Initiative, Volodymyr Zelensky is seeking to secure the continued support of Central European countries and facilitate Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The initiative can also be seen as the emergence of a renewed and stronger region in Central Europe.
The details of how the Carpathian Initiative will operate, however, remain to be seen when it is formally developed in the autumn.
