by Abraiz ALI AHMAD
On August 10, Turkmenistan’s Turkmengaz and Afghanistan’s Afghan Gas signed a memorandum to buy gas through the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline. This step brings Afghanistan closer to becoming TAPI’s first customer. The agreement is a long-awaited sign of progress for a project that has struggled for decades with big goals and ongoing uncertainty. Still, it raises a difficult question: can a pipeline that links four countries succeed when three of them face major political and security problems?
This is the main challenge for TAPI today. The pipeline was supposed to turn geography into opportunity by sending Turkmen gas through Afghanistan to Pakistan and India. Instead, the region has become less stable. Pakistan and Afghanistan recently had their worst armed clash since the Taliban returned in 2021. Pakistan and India are still dealing with the effects of their four-day military conflict in May 2025. The real issue is not just whether TAPI can be built, but whether the political conditions needed to keep it running are in place.
TAPI runs for about 1,800 kilometers, but it is more than just a pipeline crossing four countries. It creates a chain of political dependencies. Turkmenistan can supply the gas, but it has to go through Afghanistan. Pakistan must receive it before it reaches India. When running at full capacity, the pipeline is designed to carry 33 billion cubic meters of gas each year, mostly to Pakistan and India. So, TAPI’s success depends not only on infrastructure and funding but also on political trust among the countries involved, which the region currently lacks.
Right now, the biggest issue is the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan. For years, Afghanistan was seen as the main security risk for the TAPI pipeline, with worries that conflict and militancy could threaten the project. The situation is now even more serious because both countries, which the pipeline must cross, are openly confronting each other. In February 2026, Pakistan and Afghanistan had their worst armed conflict since the Taliban returned, including airstrikes and cross-border attacks. This crisis happened because of deep disagreements over cross-border militancy, especially Pakistan’s claim that the Afghan Taliban lets the TTP operate from Afghan territory,which Kabul denies.
This matters for TAPI because the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan is central to the project. A pipeline does not need perfect political relations to operate, but it does need stable and predictable ones. Construction, transit agreements, security, and gas flows cannot work well if the two main countries on the route are trading military strikes and cannot build lasting diplomatic ties.is the relationship between India and Pakistan. The conflict in May 2025 showed how quickly tensions can turn into military action, with cross-border strikes, drones, and missiles ending only after a ceasefire. Over a year later, their relationship remains tense. In May 2026, Pakistan’s military warned they are ready to respond strongly to any future attack. Right now, Pakistan and India cannot work together on TAPI. Still, some argue their need for energy might eventually push them to cooperate. Pakistan needs steady energy supplies. India is one of the world’s biggest and fastest-growing energy markets. Turkmenistan wants to sell gas to more countries.
Afghanistan needs both energy and transit income. The economic reasons for TAPI remain strong. History should make us cautious. The project has been discussed since the 1990s. The four countries have repeatedly declared support. Yet economic logic alone has not overcome security concerns, financing difficulties, and political distrust. Shared interests explain why states want a project; they do not guarantee states can protect it when relations collapse.
There are also reasons to be hopeful. The recent gas deal between Turkmenistan and Afghanistan could make TAPI stronger. If Afghanistan begins buying Turkmen gas, the pipeline will have a real market along its route. Progress on the Afghan section could create commercial momentum and make it easier to expand into Pakistan and India.
Possibilities cannot be ignored, similarly the risk cannot be overlooked. If the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan section moves ahead while relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan or Pakistan and India stay unstable, TAPI could move forward at different speeds in different areas. The northern part might get close to operating, while the southern part could be delayed by conflicts the pipeline cannot solve. It is important to see the difference: building TAPI and making it work are not the same. Construction can go on even with political tensions, and two countries can make a short-term deal. But running a four-country energy corridor for decades needs something more difficult: trust that a crisis will not suddenly turn a partner into a neighbor you cannot reach. Right now, that trust is in short supply.
The recent Turkmengaz-Afghan Gas deal is both a good sign and a warning. It shows that real progress is possible, even after years of delays. But it also points out TAPI’s main weakness: progress between two countries cannot make up for instability among all four. The project was meant to connect Central and South Asia, not just be a deal between two countries. Its biggest challenge is political. Pakistan and Afghanistan need a strong way to stop security disputes from turning into fights. Pakistan and India need enough diplomatic space to keep long-term economic interests separate from ongoing political crises. All four countries also need ways to protect the pipeline from the instability around it.
The August agreement gives some reason to hope. But hope is not the same as stability. TAPI may be moving forward, but the region it crosses is still unstable. Until the political problems are solved, the pipeline will face a challenge that construction alone cannot fix: you can build a pipeline through a conflict zone, but you cannot create real regional cooperation unless the region is politically ready to support it.
