by Sebastien GOULARD
The resurgence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict following the Hamas attacks had placed the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor project (IMEC, or IMEEC) on hold. The initiative had been announced with great fanfare at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023. Since then, the project, intended to compete with, or complement, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, had made very little progress. However, it now appears to be experiencing a resurgence despite growing instability in the Middle East. What impact will the Israeli-American strikes on Iran have on the implementation of IMEC?
New Encouraging Statements
Since the beginning of 2026, new statements have emerged indicating that IMEC is becoming a priority project between India and its partners in Europe and the Middle East.
At the start of the year, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz traveled to India to facilitate the signing of a trade agreement between India and the European Union. On this occasion, the German leader reaffirmed his support for the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor.
During his visit to New Delhi from 17 to 19 February, French President Emmanuel Macron committed, alongside Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to working on the construction of this new corridor. Agreements were signed between the port of Marseille and the ports of Mumbai and Mundra. France hopes to turn its Mediterranean port into a major hub of this initiative.
One week later, the Indian Prime Minister paid a state visit to Israel, a key partner for India in the Middle East. In his speech before the Knesset, Narendra Modi reaffirmed his intention to develop IMEC in cooperation with his regional partners, including Israel.
These statements followed those made by Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar at the Munich Security Conference on 14 February, in which he stated that the IMEC was progressing, though more slowly than expected.
The War in Iran
However, since 28 February 2026, Iran has been subjected to American and Israeli strikes. Retaliatory actions carried out by Tehran against its neighbors across the Persian Gulf have severely disrupted regional trade, forcing aircraft to avoid Middle Eastern airspace and slowing maritime flows, particularly gas and oil, through the Strait of Hormuz. Under such conditions, it is difficult to envision the development of IMEC in the short term. This region, already relatively unstable, is now experiencing extreme tensions that hinder any project related to the corridor.
Only a few years ago, India maintained relatively good relations with Iran, which was an important market for Iranian hydrocarbons. Moreover, India had invested in the development of the Iranian port of Chabahar, envisioned as a new maritime hub that would rival the Chinese-financed Pakistani port of Gwadar, located only 200 kilometers away. However, in 2019, following U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, New Delhi drastically scaled back its partnership with Tehran.
India has not condemned the Israeli-American intervention against Iran. The Indian government did not officially react after the torpedoing by a U.S. submarine of the Iranian vessel IRIS Dena, which had been participating in an Indian military exercise. This silence may be explained by New Delhi’s desire not to jeopardize its partnership with the United States and to avoid new tariffs, after the two powers signed a new trade agreement in February.
India is nevertheless particularly exposed to the instability caused by Iran’s response to the strikes. Nearly half of India’s hydrocarbon imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing New Delhi to seek alternative sources from the United States and Latin America. Furthermore, Gulf countries host a very large Indian diaspora. Nearly 2.75 million Indians live in Saudi Arabia, and in the United Arab Emirates the Indian community represents about one third of the population (4.3 million individuals in 2024). Iranian missiles and drones could potentially cause Indian casualties.
IMEC in the Context of a Weakened Iran
This context of tension and instability delays the development of IMEC. It is currently impossible to guarantee the construction of a corridor that would pass through the Persian Gulf. For New Delhi, this means that the war against Iran must end quickly. Above all, Tehran must no longer be able in the future to threaten commercial exchanges across the greater Middle East and halt the development of IMEC.
For India, it is therefore important that Iran be durably weakened in order to revive the corridor project. Another possibility would be the fall of the regime of the mullahs, replaced by a government closer to the United States and Israel. In such a scenario, Iran could potentially be integrated into the IMEC corridor. This option would allow India to revive the port of Chabahar while also accelerating the construction of the new corridor.
The Iranian Crossroads
Iran occupies a key position between the Middle East, South Asia, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Europe. The country could become a major crossroads of international trade. China had previously attempted to capitalize on this potential by creating a corridor from Iran to Xinjiang through Central Asia as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, but international sanctions against Tehran weakened the project.
A regime change in Tehran could alter the strategic landscape and lead to the creation of new corridors across Iran. India would then become an indispensable partner for a new Iran, and the IMEC would no longer be threatened by regional tensions.
