The Return of IMEC?

by Sebastien GOULARD

During their meeting in Washington on February 13, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump discussed the revival of the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor.
The day before, after inaugurating the AI Summit in Paris, the Indian Prime Minister traveled to Marseille to visit the headquarters of CMA-CGM, where, alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, he announced his intention to relaunch the IMEC project. France stands to benefit from the new corridor by establishing Marseille as a major hub in the western Mediterranean. However, the announcement was not accompanied by concrete details regarding investments or operational plans for its implementation. Both leaders are aware of the significant challenges involved in establishing such a corridor. Other European nations, particularly Italy, are also eager to participate in the project.

What is IMEC?

IMEC was introduced by India during the G20 summit in Delhi in September 2023. Its objective is to enhance trade between India, the Middle East, and Europe by developing new infrastructure, including port terminals and railway lines. The UAE and Israel are envisioned as key intermediary hubs between India and Europe. The project was conceived at a time when some Arab nations were moving closer to Israel. Through IMEC, India aims to outpace China’s Belt and Road Initiative, whose primary European route runs through Russia and has been severely impacted by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

The I2U2 Initiative

IMEC is complemented by another initiative led by Washington and New Delhi: I2U2, which stands for India, Israel, United Arab Emirates, and United States. Launched in 2022, this format promotes cooperation among its four member states and could potentially expand to include other regional players, notably Saudi Arabia. India enjoys strong relations with both Israel and the UAE, and these two countries have significantly strengthened their ties since the Abraham Accords were signed in August 2020. The I2U2 initiative could provide critical support for IMEC’s development, as the project’s success depends not only on infrastructure but also on sustained trade growth between India, the UAE, and Israel.

Challenges Facing IMEC

The obstacles that prevented IMEC’s implementation just weeks after its announcement at the 2023 G20 summit remain unresolved.

First and foremost, IMEC depends on the restoration of security and cooperation in the Middle East. The October 7 attacks by Hamas and Israel’s subsequent military response have reshaped the geopolitical landscape, pushing peace prospects further away. The creation of a Palestinian state remains a prerequisite for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel. Without Riyadh’s support and participation, the corridor’s chances of materializing are slim. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent suggestion that Saudi Arabia should accommodate Palestinians and allow them to establish a state within the Kingdom was poorly received by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Saudi Arabia aspires to play a pivotal role in global affairs—hosting U.S.-Russia negotiations on Ukraine, for instance—and is expected to be a central actor in IMEC’s construction. Other regional players, such as Jordan, Egypt, and even Syria could also have a stake in this initiative. Jordan, in particular, is likely to play a role in the proposed railway connecting the UAE to Israel.

Another major concern is the persistent threat posed by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Although the Houthis have recently pledged to scale back their assaults, they continue to target Israeli vessels and pose a broader risk to maritime traffic in the region. While the maritime route between India and the UAE does not pass through the Red Sea, ongoing instability threatens key infrastructure across the Arabian Peninsula.

To fully function as a corridor between Europe and India, IMEC requires the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict—or at the very least, the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

IMEC and President Trump

Why is the Indian Prime Minister attempting to revive this project now?

First, Modi aims to demonstrate that India can play a strategic role in the Middle East. New Delhi maintains strong ties with both Israel and the Gulf monarchies. While India previously had closer relations with Iran, particularly on energy matters, it has recently adopted a more critical stance toward Tehran’s support for certain militant groups in the region.

Additionally, Modi understands that IMEC requires U.S. approval to move forward. The corridor was initially conceived in 2023 as a potential competitor to China’s Belt and Road maritime route. With Donald Trump back in office and U.S.-China rivalry at an all-time high, the concept of a “Pivot to Asia” has once again become central to U.S. trade and foreign policy. President Trump appears to support the initiative, calling it the “most important trade route in history.”

Trump views India as a key U.S. partner, both as a buyer of military equipment—including the F-35 fighter jet—and as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the Middle East, where Beijing is now the largest importer of Saudi oil. However, during their recent meeting, Trump also renewed his threats to impose higher tariffs on Indian imports. It is clear to Modi that U.S. support for IMEC will only materialize if Washington perceives economic benefits for itself.