A Marshall Plan for Moldova

by Sebastien GOULARD

Following Moldova’s “Yes” to the European Union and the recent re-election of Maia Sandu as President, the European growth plan announced on October 9 is expected to be swiftly implemented, allowing this Eastern European republic to join the EU as quickly as possible.

Reducing Russian Influence

Moldova remains a divided country where Russian influence is still strong. Despite Moscow’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine, Moldovans only timidly expressed support for a European future. In the October 20, 2024, referendum on a potential constitutional amendment to declare Moldova’s desire to join the EU, the “Yes” vote won by only 50.35%. Two weeks later, on November 3, 2024, the second round of presidential elections was held between the pro-European Maia Sandu of the “Party of Action and Solidarity” and the pro-Russian candidate, Alexandr Stoianoglo from the Socialist Party. Sandu won the election with 55.35% of the vote. For both the referendum and the election, the votes of Moldovans abroad were crucial in aligning Moldova’s future with the EU. However, there were reports of vote-buying orchestrated by the Kremlin. Moldova’s commitment to the EU remains fragile, and continued efforts will be needed to convince Moldovans of the benefits of joining the European community. Greater integration into the European economy will be essential.

A Political Will

EU integration is a major ambition for current President Maia Sandu. Shortly after the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in March 2022, Moldova officially applied for EU membership, and in December 2023, Brussels formally opened accession negotiations with Chisinau. Moldova is now set to join the EU by 2030.

In the meantime, the country must undertake many reforms and develop its economy—Moldova is still one of the poorest states in Europe. To achieve these goals, Moldova will need several EU funding sources, including a growth plan valued at €1.8 billion.

For the EU, integrating this small state within its borders is crucial for avoiding Russian interference on its frontier. Russian troops are still stationed in Moldova’s pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria. EU membership cannot be fully realized until these troops depart, especially if Russia recognizes Transnistria’s independence.

To move closer to the EU, President Maia Sandu has launched several initiatives to fight corruption organized by certain oligarchs. This strategy aims to reassure foreign investors, who may be attracted by the prospect of EU market accession.

The Growth Plan for Moldova

The EU’s growth plan is often compared to the Marshall Plan, from which Western European countries benefited after World War II, as it could both support Moldova’s development and strengthen its Western values.

This growth plan comprises €1.8 billion to be provided to Moldova over three years as the country implements new reforms. The plan’s goal is to double Moldova’s economy by 2030, providing financial support to around 25,000 businesses and potentially creating up to 100,000 jobs.

The European plan is based on three pillars. The first focuses on investments in infrastructure and public services. New bridges and roads are expected to be built, especially to better connect Moldova with its European neighbors. The energy sector is to undergo renovations, including the addition of new connections to the European network. To enhance trade with the EU and attract investors, efforts will be made to strengthen high-speed Internet availability.

The second pillar involves accelerating access to the European single market by facilitating the free movement of goods, digital and energy market integration, and participation in the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA).

Finally, the third pillar supports ongoing reforms aimed at enhancing the country’s competitiveness, improving worker skills, and advancing the energy transition.

Challenges for President Maia Sandu

For the Moldovan President, this plan should not only enable infrastructure development, but also protect and promote European democratic values to help distance Moldova from the Russian threat. Brussels and Chisinau will need to convince all Moldovans of the benefits of a shared destiny. The country’s poorer citizens have shown skepticism toward Moldova’s recent alignment with the EU, partly due to inflation, which exceeded 5% in August 2024. Moreover, despite the rapprochement, Moldova has not yet seen an economic boom—growth is stagnant—and most importantly, Moldova’s population is decreasing. Its population has dropped from nearly 3 million in the mid-1990s to 2.42 million in 2024. Young and skilled individuals are leaving for the EU thanks to various European mobility agreements. While this migration brings financial support—remittances from Moldovans abroad represent 12% of GDP—it does not contribute to the country’s dynamism. Closer EU ties could further accelerate this depopulation. One priority for the re-elected President and the EU authorities will be to create local opportunities.

Moldova could finally confirm its European path. In addition to this growth plan, Moldova will need to forge new partnerships with EU member states, as it is in all Europeans’ interests to have a prosperous country on their border that is free from Russian influence.