Indonesia, the New Leader of the Global South?

by Sebastien GOULARD

For his first official visit abroad since he assumed the office of President of Indonesia on October 20, 2024, Prabowo Subianto chose China as his destination, before heading to the United States, then Peru for the next Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, and finally Brazil and the United Kingdom. Indonesia may thus play a more significant role in global affairs.

In Beijing, President Prabowo Subianto met with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, who invited him to join China in leading the Global South toward more harmonious and fairer global development.

The new Indonesian President reiterated his country’s traditional stance of non-alignment. It was in Bandung, Indonesia, in 1955 that the Non-Aligned Movement was formalized. President Subianto remains strongly committed to this principle. Indonesia, as the largest Muslim-majority country and a giant in Southeast Asia, has the capacity to become one of the major powers of the next decade.

Relations with Beijing

It is no coincidence that Prabowo Subianto chose China as his first destination as President. China is currently Indonesia’s largest trade partner and has built and financed significant infrastructure across the archipelago, particularly through the “Belt and Road Initiative”. However, Jakarta and Beijing still have unresolved issues regarding their claims in the South China Sea. Clashes between the two navies are still possible, especially in the Natuna area, where explorations for potential oil and gas resources are underway. Subianto won the presidential elections partly amid a surge in Indonesian nationalism. The Indonesian population will therefore be highly attentive to the defense of the country’s maritime sovereignty.

A rapprochement between Beijing and Jakarta, however, is possible on the Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and United Arab Emirates (BRICS) organization question. While his predecessor, Joko Widodo, showed reluctance to join BRICS, Prabowo Subianto is more enthusiastic and could respond positively to China’s invitation.

A Pro-Russian Stance?

Following the country’s non-alignment position, Prabowo Subianto, then Minister of Defense, presented his peace plan for Ukraine at the Shangri-La Dialogue forum in June 2023 in Singapore. This plan was immediately rejected by Ukraine and its allies, as it effectively legitimized Russia’s occupation of certain regions in Ukraine. This initiative was widely criticized for its amateurish nature and pro-Russian stance. Subianto then visited Moscow in July 2024 to advocate for a good-neighbor policy with Russia and to develop new partnerships in areas like education and nuclear energy. Despite this setback, it is likely that President Subianto will again engage with international issues concerning Ukraine as well as the Middle East.

Relations to Renew with the European Union

It is unfortunate that President Subianto is not visiting the European Union on this initial international tour. Indonesia and the European Union have experienced some challenging relations since 2017 due to European regulations regarding palm oil and deforestation, leading Prabowo Subianto to declare during his campaign that Indonesia did not need the European Union. Yet Brussels could play a role in the balanced foreign policy (between China and the United States) that Prabowo Subianto aims to promote. Dialogue now needs to be reestablished between the two parties. One can only hope that on the issue of deforestation, as well as other international matters, Indonesia and the European Union can work in concert.

Numerous challenges weigh on Indonesia under President Prabowo Subianto; internationally, he will need to forge new partnerships to confirm Indonesia’s position as a major power.