In July 2025, Russia became the first country to recognise the Taliban government of Afghanistan. Since August 2021, the Taliban have remained largely isolated in the interconnected world. Following this recognition, the questions regarding the interests of the Taliban and the Kremlin crop up. Whenever a country recognises the government, it allows it to expand its relations in terms of economic engagements, intelligence cooperation against transnational groups, like the Islamic State–Khorasan Province (ISKP or IS-K), and Russia is doing the same. This initiative of Russia will encourage other countries to recognise the Taliban government, reducing Afghanistan’s diplomatic isolation.
Is it a win-win situation for the Kremlin and Kabul?
Kremlin’s major counterpart, ISIS-Khorasan, is shaping its diplomatic relations with Afghanistan. The group experienced a resurgence after the 2021 collapse of the Afghan government and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan that same year. The group carried out massive attacks on civilians. In March 2024, the Crocus City Hall attack was an example of how mass shootings by ISIS-K killed hundreds of people in Russia. Therefore, Russia’s decision to recognise reflects a strategic choice to secure its southern frontier and counter extremist threats such as ISIS-K. The officials from Russia confirmed that the initiative has been taken to strengthen regional security and combat terrorism and drug trafficking. The recognition will not only pave the way for Russia to coordinate security efforts, but also to expand its strategic influence in Central Asia. The relationship between the Taliban and ISIS-Khorasan is also defined by a deep-seated enmity fuelled by historical grievances, fighting for dominance in the country, and both groups have an ingrained hatred for each other. Thereby, making Russo-Talib cooperation on counter-terrorism a shared goal.
Regional Stability at Stake
Following the USA’s withdrawal in 2021, Russia is trying to emerge as a regional power. Russia is filling the Diplomatic Vacuum created by the absence of Western capitalism. The recognition positions Russia as a key stakeholder, not only in shaping Afghanistan’s future but also in designing the regional politics. The major unease that the world is experiencing is the Security risks associated with this recognition. Afghanistan, as a safe haven for terrorist organizations, is bugging China and Pakistan.
Russia’s recognition presents a security challenge to Pakistan, i.e., Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Pakistan repeatedly claimed that the Taliban regime is providing safe haven to TTP, a group responsible for multiple terrorist attacks in the country. The recognition also raises questions regarding China’s security, as the major rivals of China, i.e., the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and BLA, are taking shelter in Afghanistan. Moreover, CPEC is continuously experiencing a major setback from the Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA). The world has witnessed the links between BLA and other terrorist organisations. BLA via its Majeed Brigade executed multiple high-casualty attacks in southwestern Pakistan, including in Awaran, Panjgur, and Dalbandin. The important point to discuss is that the Majeed Brigade maintains operational ties with TTP, IS-K, and ETIM. It will exacerbate challenges for Pakistan’s security and China’s economic ambitions.
The other major concern following this recognition is, what will happen to the rights of women and minorities? This recognition is a legitimization of a regime that is criticized in the international arena for human rights abuses, especially restrictions on women. Since 2021, bans on education beyond sixth grade and in medical training, and jobs. There have also been restrictions on how far a woman can travel without a male chaperone, and even their voice must not be heard in public.
In a nutshell, Russia’s recognition of the Taliban government in Afghanistan marks a significant turning point in regional dynamics, prompting a complex interplay of geopolitical interests, security concerns, and humanitarian issues. While it offers a potential pathway for Afghanistan to emerge from its diplomatic isolation and enhances Russia’s role as a regional power, it simultaneously raises critical questions about the implications for human rights, particularly for women and minorities. The Taliban’s historical enmity with ISIS-K provides a common ground for cooperation against extremism, yet the recognition also poses security challenges for neighbouring countries, including Pakistan and China. Ultimately, as the situation unfolds, the ability of the international community to address human rights concerns while navigating the intricate politics of the region will be crucial in shaping Afghanistan’s future and determining the stability of South Asia as a whole.
