by Sebastien GOULARD
Greenland has been making headlines regularly since President Trump declared in May 2025 that he did not rule out annexing the island.
The main argument put forward by the United States is that Denmark would not be able to defend such a vast territory (2.16 million km²) on its own in the event of an invasion, thereby threatening U.S. security in the Western Hemisphere. The significant presence of mineral resources may also be a driving factor behind Washington’s interest in this increasingly autonomous Danish territory.
A Longstanding Interest
Donald Trump is not the first American leader to set his sights on Greenland. As early as the 19th century, Washington had made multiple requests to Copenhagen regarding the island. In 1917, the United States purchased the Danish West Indies—which became the U.S. Virgin Islands—but Denmark consistently refused to sell Greenland.
During World War II, while Denmark was occupied by German forces, American troops were stationed in Greenland starting in April 1941. The island held strategic importance in the North Atlantic submarine war; German U-boats relied on clandestine weather stations operated on the island. The end of World War II did not result in a full U.S. military withdrawal. The Cold War further increased Greenland’s strategic value, as Washington feared Soviet forces could use the passage between Greenland and Iceland to approach the American coast. In 1951, the United States and Denmark signed an agreement allowing the continued U.S. military presence in Greenland. An American base, now known as Pituffik Space Base, was established and remains operational today. The United States later encouraged Denmark to grant more autonomy to the territory. Greenland is also protected under Article 5 of NATO.
Greenland and Climate Change
Unfortunately, climate change is expected to significantly disrupt Greenland’s environment and society in the coming years. Temperatures are projected to rise, and the climate is expected to become wetter. Icebergs are melting, and certain regions of the island could become ice-free year-round. Global warming is likely to increase the island’s strategic importance. Until now, few infrastructures had been built in Greenland, but new projects are under discussion. Currently, there are very few roads across this vast territory, and towns or villages are connected by air travel. However, Greenlandic authorities are considering building a major 170 km road in the southwest to link Kangerlussuaq Airport with the coastal town of Sisimiut, enabling development in the agri-food sector and boosting seafood exports.
If rare earth mining projects move forward, additional roads and infrastructure—particularly for mineral transport—will also need to be considered.
As for energy, over 75% of Greenland’s electricity comes from hydroelectric power. The island could construct new hydro plants to support its growing economic activities.
Tourism is also expected to grow significantly. In 2023, nearly 140,000 foreign visitors traveled to the island—a record for Greenland. Most of this was cruise tourism, facilitated by climate change. The opening of a new long-haul airport in Nuuk in October 2024 is expected to accelerate this trend; two other international airports are currently under construction. As part of efforts to diversify its economy, Greenland is aiming to promote high-quality tourism and is considering limiting the number of cruise ships docking at its ports.
Greenlandic authorities are also concerned about wealthy foreigners disrupting the island’s real estate market through second-home purchases. As a result, a restrictive law targeting foreign property investment was adopted in February 2025.
Greenland and the Arctic Route
Should global warming continue, the Arctic zone—ice-free for much of the year—could become a strategic corridor for global trade. A portion of goods flowing between the United States and the rest of the world could be rerouted through the Arctic Polar Route, bypassing vulnerable chokepoints like the Suez and Panama Canals. Russia and China have launched various initiatives to develop a polar trade route. In 2018, China published its first white paper on Arctic policy, five years after joining the Arctic Council as an observer. Beijing sees the Arctic route as a possible complementary trade path to Europe.
In the event of a confrontation with China, Washington has every interest in securing the maritime routes that pass near Greenland. The Trump administration argues that Denmark, responsible for the island’s security, lacks the capacity to protect it in the event of rising tensions with China or Russia.
Abundant Resources
Greenland’s subsoil holds vast resources, and climate change is making them easier to exploit. First, in terms of fossil fuels, Greenland is estimated to contain the equivalent of 31 billion barrels of oil. However, local political parties oppose both the exploitation and exploration of these resources. Since 2009, Greenland has had full control over its natural resources, granted by Copenhagen. In 2021, the government banned offshore exploration. Though Greenland could potentially export oil to the European market, it has shown no intention to do so.
Similarly, Greenland is rich in rare earth elements. But again, the local population is highly cautious about the environmental impact of resource extraction. In 2021, the newly elected environmentalist government banned uranium mining, to the dismay of Greenland Minerals, a subsidiary of Australian group ETM, which is now suing the government for $11 billion in damages. Rare earth mining can produce radioactive waste, and is thus currently prohibited in Greenland. The extraction of lead and zinc in the second half of the 20th century caused significant environmental and public health issues, which have been well documented since the 1970s.
A Territory Seeking Autonomy
The ongoing process toward independence—from the adoption of Home Rule in 1979, to expanded self-government in 2009, and the official declaration in 2023 making independence a formal objective—is viewed as the best way to ensure that Greenland’s resources are managed solely in the interests of its inhabitants. Greenlanders, though few in number—fewer than 60,000—are deeply attached to their identity and committed to preserving it. As they move toward independence, American statements have been poorly received by Greenlanders, who have no intention of seeing their land handed over to the United States.
Tensions Between Allies
Despite its broad autonomy, Greenland remains a Danish territory. Statements made by President Trump and the Vice President were coldly received in Denmark, a country that had considered itself one of the United States’ closest allies, having sent troops into combat in Iraq and Afghanistan. From the Danish perspective, the American president’s remarks are difficult to understand. Nearly half of Danes now consider the United States to be a threat. In the context of rising tensions with Russia, American statements are seen as ill-timed and disruptive to NATO unity. Although Copenhagen announced the purchase of new U.S. F-35 fighter jets in July, it is also now considering turning to other European suppliers for its military equipment—something unprecedented for the Kingdom.
This episode illustrates just how much interest major powers have in Greenland in the context of climate change and the race for rare earths. As it moves from autonomy toward probable independence, Greenland will need to maintain strong partnerships—particularly with the European Union and Canada—to continue safeguarding its interests.
