A Crisis Between Thailand and Cambodia

by Sebastien GOULARD

Thailand is experiencing a political crisis that has led to the suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra by the Constitutional Court, following escalating border tensions with Cambodia.

Clashes with Cambodia

In May, border clashes between the two countries resulted in the death of a Cambodian national and prompted Bangkok to close its border with Cambodia to both Thai citizens and foreign tourists.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn’s downfall was triggered by the leak of a recorded conversation between her and Cambodia’s strongman, former Prime Minister and current Senate President Hun Sen. In the leaked recording, Paetongtarn was criticized for being overly conciliatory toward Hun Sen and seeking appeasement, much to the dismay of the Thai military.
Hun Sen was once an ally of Paetongtarn’s father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Thai public opinion appears to be increasingly leaning toward the military, which ruled the country following the May 2014 coup until the 2019 elections. Thailand may be on the brink of another period of instability.
This episode also highlights Hun Sen’s continued influence in Cambodian politics, underscoring the lack of leadership renewal in the country.

Tensions Between Thailand and Cambodia

The border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia is long-standing, dating back to the 19th century and treaties signed between the Kingdom of Siam and France. In 1867, both parties agreed to designate the Angkor region as Siamese territory. However, in 1907, Siam was forced to return certain territories to France, which was occupying present-day Cambodia at the time.
During the Japanese invasion of French Indochina in 1940, Thailand reclaimed disputed territories, only to return them after Japan’s defeat. Since Cambodia’s independence in 1953, relations have remained strained due to border issues, particularly over the ownership of several temples near the frontier, including the Preah Vihear temple, which the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in 1962 to belong to Cambodia, along with the Thai island of Ko Kut.
In 2013, the ICJ reaffirmed its 1962 ruling at Cambodia’s request. In fact, the temple’s listing as a UNESCO World Heritage site in 2008 had further inflamed tensions.
To this day, Thailand does not recognize the ICJ’s jurisdiction over this matter.

Impact on Tourism

This crisis has halted the momentum of tourism between Thailand and Cambodia. It comes at an already challenging time for the tourism industry, which is still reeling from the repercussions of Middle East tensions. The (brief) conflict between Israel and Iran has deterred foreign tourists—particularly from the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East—from traveling to Thailand. The country is once again seeking to attract Chinese visitors, though industry professionals remain cautious about becoming overly dependent on the Chinese market.
A deepening divide among the Thai population between military supporters and Paetongtarn’s backers, potentially leading to demonstrations, would further weaken the sector.

An Economy Under Threat

This crisis adds to an already complex economic environment, notably due to looming U.S. tariff threats. President Trump has announced that the United States will impose a 36% tariff on Thai products starting August 1. Thailand had hoped to position itself as an attractive destination for foreign companies seeking to relocate operations from China to Southeast Asia—Apple being one such example. A political crisis would only undermine Thailand’s standing in future negotiations with Washington.

A Possible Mediation?

Both Cambodia and Thailand are members of ASEAN, but the regional organization has consistently refused to intervene directly in such crises, adhering to its principle of non-interference. While this rule has helped maintain stability among member states, it also calls into question ASEAN’s capacity to act.
Should an open conflict erupt between Thailand and Cambodia, ASEAN’s credibility would be severely undermined.

Before her suspension, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra had held talks with French President Emmanuel Macron, who offered to mediate the dispute between Thailand and Cambodia. France made a similar offer in 2011, which was rejected by Bangkok at the time. A successful mediation today would align with France’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

China, too, has expressed interest in acting as a mediator, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi presenting Beijing as a neutral power. A conflict—or even persistent tensions—in Southeast Asia would threaten China’s planned connectivity projects in cooperation with countries in the region.

The current political crisis in Thailand—sparked by a long-standing dispute with Cambodia over a temple—could have serious regional implications. For both Bangkok and Phnom Penh, cooperation must take precedence over dangerous nationalism.