by Sebastien GOULARD
After years of negotiations and tensions, an agreement between France and New Caledonia appears to be within reach — one that could soon lead to international recognition for the territory.
A Territory Under Strain
On July 12, the French state and various Caledonian political parties signed an agreement aimed at shaping the future of the territory. One of the key developments in its institutional status is the potential for New Caledonia to participate in international organizations.
New Caledonia is an archipelago of nearly 18,500 km² in the Pacific Ocean, over 16,000 km from Paris. It has been a French territory since 1853 but is not part of the European Union. Like French Polynesia, it uses the Pacific Franc as currency. The territory holds a unique “sui generis” status, granting it broad autonomy and the right to self-determination.
New Caledonia has experienced significant tensions, primarily due to the independence demands of some members of the Kanak people, the archipelago’s Indigenous population.
After World War II, France began an integration policy on the archipelago. New Caledonia ceased to be a colony, and its inhabitants were granted French citizenship. The exploitation of nickel led to the arrival of new settlers from mainland France and the Pacific, intensifying Kanak demands and sparking unrest between 1984 and 1988.
In 1988, the Matignon Accords were signed to rebalance power among communities. A decade later, the Nouméa Accord (1998) granted New Caledonians increased autonomy and scheduled a series of referendums on independence. These were held in 2018, 2020, and 2021, each resulting in a vote against independence.
However, the votes did not end the tensions. In 2024, following a proposed electoral reform, unrest flared again, and riots paralyzed the archipelago.
The Bougival Agreement
The new agreement, signed by all political parties, aims to resolve the crisis and guide New Caledonia through institutional reforms designed to satisfy all communities. A new fundamental law will be adopted in 2026 to define the role of local institutions.
A Caledonian nationality will be created, complementing French nationality.
The Congress of New Caledonia will also be empowered to request additional sovereign powers from France, including defense, currency, and security — in addition to international relations.
France and New Caledonia also plan to work together to make the territory more attractive and to fight the high cost of living.
A strategic plan will be implemented to support the development of the local nickel industry.
Before coming into force, the Bougival Agreement must be approved by referendum by the Caledonian population and through the adoption of a constitutional amendment by France.
Ultimately, New Caledonia is expected to move toward a more flexible relationship with France, potentially paving the way for fuller sovereignty.
New Caledonia’s Challenges
To achieve greater autonomy and become a regional power in the Pacific, New Caledonia must address several challenges.
The first is fostering harmony among its various ethnic groups. Today, Kanaks represent around 40% of the population. While their cultural demands are strong and legitimate, they will also need to consider the other communities.
These include recent European immigrants from mainland France, mainly settled in Nouméa; the “Caldoches,” descendants of 19th-century French settlers, present across the archipelago; these European communities make up about 30% of the population.
There are also Métis populations and migrants from other French Pacific territories such as Wallis and Futuna and Tahiti, accounting for about 10%. Asian communities from Indonesia, China, and Japan are also present.
The future Caledonian society will need to reflect this diverse makeup. Although not addressed in recent negotiations, the issue of customary land — property held by autonomous Kanak groups — will need to be considered.
The second challenge is economic attractiveness, which requires developing new sectors.
Historically, New Caledonia’s economy has been driven by mining, especially nickel production, which indirectly employs about a quarter of the island’s workforce. The archipelago holds over 20% of the world’s nickel resources. However, this industry is now struggling, having lost competitiveness to countries like Indonesia that have driven down global prices.
With higher production costs — and stricter environmental and social standards — New Caledonia’s mining sector cannot compete. One of the three local smelters shut down in summer 2024. The sector is heavily dependent on China, which imports about three-quarters of local production for battery manufacturing.
The Bougival Agreement stipulates that New Caledonian nickel will be integrated into French and European raw materials strategies, helping the territory diversify its trading partners and reduce its dependence on China.
New Caledonia and France’s Indo-Pacific Strategy
Since 2018, under President Emmanuel Macron, France has pursued its own Indo-Pacific strategy, relying partly on its overseas territories, including New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna, and French Polynesia. This presence gives France legitimacy in the region.
The evolving relationship between France and New Caledonia will be closely watched by other French overseas territories and by independent states in the Indo-Pacific. France will need to adapt its presence and protect its interests in new ways.
For New Caledonia, maintaining ties with France ensures privileged access to the European Union, allowing it to diversify trade and counterbalance the influence of major Indo-Pacific powers.
Author: Dr. Sebastien Goulard is the founder and editor-in-chief of Global Connectivities.
